How Chinese Economy is going back to expansion?
The global recovery remains fragile and patchy, fortunately, many economists have started talking again about growing signs of “China’s economy expansion.” Most notably, the improvement in PMI is more significant given that the index normally declines in November, suggests growth is gaining momentum.
The expansion of Purchasing Managers’ Survey (PMI) in October and November gives a further support to a mild rebound in Chinese economic growth. Here’s the chart from Bloomberg. This confirms that the Chinese economy continues to recover gradually.
Morgan Stanley said in a note:
“Continued gains in seasonally adjusted PMI in the last three months offered further evidence of the growth rebound. In the absence of rising unemployment problems, policy makers will likely find the need of further policy easing less urgent. Meanwhile, although the new export order index fueled some hopes for improvement, high uncertainty in euro zone and imminent “fiscal cliff” risk in the US will likely continue to weigh on global recovery.”
– In a similar survey released by, the National Bureau of Statistics, showed the pace of growth in the manufacturing sector quickening.
– The official PMI rose to a seven-month high of 50.6 for November, from 50.2 in October.
– I expect the Chinese government will set a 7.5% of GDP growth target for 2013 in the coming “Central Economic Work Conference” which will be held in December.
– The European debt crisis and listless US economy continue to crimp demand from China’s two largest trade partners.
– Chinese manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace in seven months in November.
-According to the China Real Estate Index System (CREIS), average home price in China’s 100 biggest cities rose 0.3% in November.