The biggest employment trends by 2020 will be “The War For Talent” – about 16 million to 18 million plus high-skill and college-educated workers shortage in richest countries of the world. In a new study from McKinsey predicts in coming decades, advanced economies will be producing too less of the high-skill workers, and too many with only high school or vocational training.
McKinsey analyzed 70 countries, representing 87 percent of global population and 96 percent of GDP. Here’s a look at McKinsey’s breakdown trends for workers and some discoveries that can change the face of global labor market in future.
1) By 2020 the Chinese economy will need 23 million more college-educated workers than it can supply – despite of massive investments in education by the government.
2) Currently only 11% of college graduates accounts for the Chinese labor market – getting to 17% by 2020 is a fairly good position, but it would require more than 85% of China’s secondary-school graduates to complete a college education.
3) China has one of the world’s highest female labor-participation rates – 82% - increasing that level won’t be easy.
4) India is a much younger country than China - 36 million college graduates will join its labor force in the coming decade.
5) Low secondary-school graduation rate in India will create a shortage of medium-skill workers, for example plumbers and welders for the country’s burgeoning construction, manufacturing, retail- and wholesale-trade, and service sectors.
6) Medium-skill workers in India - There will be a gap in medium-skill workers of 13 million, or about 10 percent of demand in 2020 – India already faces a shortage of medium-skill workers.
7) Low-skill workers in India - India could have 27 million too many low-skill workers by 2020, growing surplus of low-skill workers.
8) Good news comes for India highly skilled workers segment - India could be among the few countries with a surplus of highly skilled workers: in our momentum case, 36 million college graduates will join its labor force in the coming decade.
9) Bangladesh, Kenya, Morocco, and Nigeria will contribute about one-third of the growth in the global labor force.
10) Countries of sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (excluding India) could have a shortage of 31 million workers with a secondary education by 2030.
11) Economies in Europe and North America will need 16 million to 18 million more college-educated workers by 2020.
12) Southern Europe countries will have 3.5 million too few college graduates in 2020, Germany could face a shortage of college-educated workers by 10 to 11 percent of demand. In the United States, 1.5 million too few workers with college or graduate degrees by 2020.
13) Advanced economies will have about 32 million to 35 million more workers without post secondary education than employers will need.
The daunting challenges: Advanced economies are likely to face an excess supply of low- and medium-skill workers – shortage in college-educated high-skill workers.