What Trumpism Means to China

Whether Donald Trump will become the next Republican President of the United States remains uncertain. If he secures the presidency, which seems probable, the implications for China’s future international landscape are worth considering.

A notable observation is that Trumpism, particularly in its approach to China, centers on economic populism. This could potentially benefit China’s current economic trajectory by prioritizing American economic interests while minimizing political complexities. Such a stance might simplify the intricate dynamics between the U.S. and China, making outcomes more predictable.

Effective management of trade issues by China could lead to the resolution of many trade conflicts with the U.S. This contrasts with the progressive stance of the Joe Biden administration, which often involves political ideologies with uncertain outcomes.

Trump’s notable traits—his outspokenness, tendency to offend easily, and “toxic” rhetoric—are expected to persist. However, the strong government system in the United States, including Congress, the police, laws, and well-known intellectual groups, mostly reduces the problems caused by Trump’s personal flaws. The efficacy of the American system, proven over 240 years and tested through World Wars I and II, is unquestionable. While Trump himself may appear erratic at times, Trumpism operates within a framework of national rationality to a considerable extent.

The Trump administration’s primary focus will be embroiled in domestic political issues. In Congress, fierce partisan battles are inevitable, with every policy action closely scrutinized by the Democratic Party and left-leaning American media. Faced with such significant internal friction and challenges, Trump is acutely aware of the time constraints of his tenure. Therefore, his emphasis on international trade is likely to exceed that of his first term, as he consistently seeks decisive outcomes.

However, for China, such a Trump presidency is not alarming, provided it maintains strategic patience.

While China will continue to face confrontational engagements with both American parties and possibly a united Western front—a certainty—it also retains opportunities for greater strategic maneuverability compared to the Biden era. Trumpism tends to push the U.S. towards isolationism reminiscent of the Gilded Age of the last century. The U.S. economy is expected to benefit significantly from Trump’s focus on economic issues.

However, geopolitically, this could create space for other global powers due to American isolationist sentiments, encouraging ambitious actions from regional hegemonic players like Turkey, India, Iran, and Israel. These rising powers will emerge across various regions, undoubtedly increasing global volatility but also presenting China with new opportunities for survival and growth.

In practical terms, the Trump administration faces formidable challenges as it seeks to restructure the American industrial landscape. It must unify actions among American corporate giants and mobilize cooperation from Wall Street— a daunting undertaking. Consequently, Trump’s efforts will predominantly unfold in the realm of international relations and trade. Therefore, trade wars, disputes, sanctions, and counter-sanctions are likely to become more frequent.

Yet, throughout history, from the time of Vasco da Gama, global trade has always faced such challenges, varying only in intensity. Solutions to disputes abound, including negotiations, legal avenues, public opinion, sanctions, counter-measures, lobbying, investment, interest alignments, industrial reorganization, and technological advancements. As long as market demand persists, active participants in international trade will continue to find ways to navigate forward.

For China. the true challenge lies in the long-term viability of Trumpism. Trump’s potential successor, JD Vance, embodies a more idealistic form of Trumpism. Over the next four to eight years, Vance could further mature and potentially ascend to Trump’s position, ushering in a new generation of Republican leadership entrenched in Trumpist ideals. This could significantly shape American politics for the foreseeable future, potentially weakening opposition voices from traditional establishments such as liberalism and progressivism. A transformed political landscape would likely emerge globally, with conservatism gaining prominence not only in the U.S. but also in Europe, leading to a more fragmented global political environment.

Amidst these shifts, China faces both opportunities and challenges. Its primary challenge lies internally, where overly idealistic policies could prove impractical. China’s economic cornerstone remains its exports, despite recent economic slowdowns. Continued strong export performance is essential, but pursuing profit at any cost could provoke economic populism abroad, potentially escalating into divisive confrontations that jeopardize China’s international opportunities. Thus, China will need to guard against trade extremism and adopt smoother trade strategies, akin to Japan and South Korea, to resolve disputes diplomatically. Business dealings, when approached pragmatically, often yield positive outcomes.

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