UN Report Predicts Slow Global Growth in 2025 Amid Persistent Economic Challenges

The global economy is forecast to grow at 2.8% in 2025, maintaining the same rate as in 2024 and falling below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2%, according to the 2025 edition of the United Nations flagship report, World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP). The report emphasizes the need for bold multilateral action to address interconnected crises, including debt, inequality, and climate change, which continue to hinder sustainable growth.

While the report acknowledges that lower inflation and monetary easing in several economies could provide a modest boost to global activity, it also points to several factors restraining progress. Weak investment, sluggish productivity growth, and high debt levels remain significant obstacles. Additionally, risks such as geopolitical conflicts, intensifying trade tensions, and elevated borrowing costs are contributing to persistent economic uncertainty, particularly in low-income countries and other vulnerable nations where fragile growth threatens progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

The report highlights significant regional disparities in economic prospects. Growth in the United States is projected to decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.9% in 2025, while Europe is expected to experience a modest recovery, with GDP growth increasing from 0.9% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2025.

East Asia is forecast to grow at 4.7% in 2025, driven largely by China’s stable growth projection of 4.8%. Meanwhile, South Asia is anticipated to remain the fastest-growing region, with GDP growth projected at 5.7% and India leading the region with a growth rate of 6.6%. Africa is also expected to see a slight improvement in growth, rising from 3.4% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025, spurred by recoveries in major economies such as Egypt, Nigeria, and South Africa. However, the report warns that challenges such as conflicts, rising debt servicing costs, limited employment opportunities, and worsening climate impacts could dampen Africa’s prospects.

Global trade is projected to grow by 3.2% in 2025, while inflation is expected to decline from 4% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025. Despite this, developing countries are likely to continue facing elevated inflation levels, with one in five expected to experience double-digit inflation, particularly in the form of food price inflation.

The report also underscores the critical role of minerals such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earths in driving the global energy transition and accelerating progress toward the SDGs. While resource-rich developing countries have the potential to leverage these minerals to stimulate growth, create jobs, and increase public revenues for sustainable development, the report flags several risks. Poor governance, unsafe labor practices, environmental degradation, and overdependence on volatile commodity markets could exacerbate inequalities and damage ecosystems if not managed carefully.

Governments are urged to avoid overly restrictive fiscal policies and to prioritize investments in clean energy, infrastructure, and essential social sectors such as health and education. The report also calls for stronger international cooperation to mitigate the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with critical minerals.

The WESP report is produced by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) in collaboration with the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the five UN regional commissions. The 2025 edition also includes contributions from the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).

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