Global Economic Outlook Stabilizes, But Long-Term Risks Linger, According to More Than Half of Chief Economists

The global economic outlook is showing signs of stabilization, yet vulnerabilities remain, according to the World Economic Forum’s September 2024 Chief Economists Outlook. The report notes that while inflation is easing and global trade remains resilient, high levels of public debt in both advanced and developing economies pose significant threats to long-term stability.

More than half of the surveyed chief economists predict that the global economy will remain relatively unchanged over the next year, though 37% foresee a potential downturn. Fiscal pressures, primarily from rising debt and interest payments, are expected to hinder growth, leaving many countries ill-prepared for future crises such as climate-related risks and technological disruptions. However, there are more positive signs in regions like South Asia and parts of Europe, where the outlook remains brighter.

Confidence is growing that inflation in the United States is under control, with the percentage of respondents anticipating high inflation dropping from 21% in 2024 to just 6% in 2025. The report stresses that addressing key policy priorities, alongside fostering economic growth, will be critical as geopolitical tensions and domestic political challenges persist.

Echoing similar sentiments, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) noted in its latest Interim Economic Outlook that the global economy is “turning a corner.” The OECD also upgraded the UK’s growth forecast for 2024, predicting it will outpace the economies of Japan, Italy, and Germany.

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