Statistics is a fascinating and basic concept in the daily life of every human being. Simplifying a lot, everything has a specific probability of occurring, conditioned upon the numerous variables involved. Even more interesting is how each of people reacts differently to these chances of success.
People generally approach life’s questions with one of three types of attitudes: those related to work decisions, personal matters, and the unforeseen events. The two extreme attitudes are optimism and pessimism, both characterised by superficiality of analysis and errors of assessment.
At the centre is the balanced vision of the rational attitude characterized by a deep capacity for analysis and synthesis, as well as a detailed knowledge of the facts. Complicated challenges that require effort and time, and that occasionally people are unable to properly evaluate in accordance with the emotions that are surrounding them at the moment in question. Due to these factors, people often tend to be at one of the two extreme points, almost forgetting the statistical evaluations useful to outline a vision as objective and realistic as possible.
According to various studies, people tend to have an optimistic outlook on their lives and their concerns, but this perspective shifts when they consider other people. It is as if the human being were to pass on to others (or society in general) the negative experiences, while he thinks that he possesses all the resources and abilities needed to achieve exactly what has been hypothesized.
A new scientific study on overoptimism
Between being optimistic and pessimistic, the first attitude seems to be more appreciated at the social level. Sometimes it can also be a soft skill required in the workplace. However, both viewpoints have negative consequences, and there is a deep scientific literature on the topic.
In a recent study on the subject matter, the University of Bath in the United Kingdom investigated the relationship between excessive optimism and reduced cognitive function, as well as how it affects cognitive functions like memory, logical thinking, and computational ability. All these characteristics have the potential to alter people judgment, pushing them to make errors of assessment.
The study is called “Looking at the (B)right Side of Life: Cognitive Ability and Misaligned Financial Expectations” and demonstrates how the most optimistic people often make the worst decisions. The goal was to investigate people’s expectations of their financial well-being and compare it with actual results. The data showed that individuals with superior cognitive abilities had a greater propensity towards realism and a 35% lower tendency towards extreme optimism.
Too much optimism can affect our judgment, leading us to make mistakes in our judgment. In accordance with this research, optimism is an integrated human mechanism that contributes to people to hope for the best. When making an extremely important choice, this automatism can only be avoided by those with high cognitive capacities.
The paradox of excessively optimistic thinking is that it negatively impacts people decision-making process, particularly when significant choices need to be made. Given the results of this research, adopting a pessimistic viewpoint would also be an extreme one, so the solution is not to adopt it.
When making crucial decisions, the goal must be to strike a balance between extremes of optimism and a healthy dose of realism.
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