Renewables Set to Meet Half of Global Electricity Demand by 2030, IEA Report Reveals

Renewable energy, led by solar, is on track to supply nearly half of the world’s electricity demand by the end of the decade, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The report “Renewables 2024” highlights how supportive policies and favorable economic conditions are driving a surge in renewable power capacity. Over the next several years, global renewable additions are expected to equal the current combined capacity of China, the European Union, India, and the United States.

The IEA’s flagship report reveals that between 2024 and 2030, more than 5,500 gigawatts (GW) of new renewable energy capacity will be added, almost tripling the growth seen in the previous six-year period. China is projected to dominate this expansion, accounting for nearly 60% of the total global renewable capacity installed by 2030. This will elevate China’s share of the world’s renewable power capacity from a third in 2010 to almost half by the end of the decade. India, meanwhile, is experiencing the fastest growth rate among major economies.

Solar power is set to play a central role, with photovoltaic (PV) technology forecast to account for 80% of the global increase in renewable capacity. This growth is being fueled by the construction of large-scale solar power plants and an uptick in rooftop solar installations. Wind power, despite facing challenges, is also poised for recovery, with its expansion rate expected to double between 2024 and 2030 compared to the previous period. Solar and wind are now the most cost-effective options for adding new electricity generation in almost every country.

The report predicts that nearly 70 countries, which collectively hold 80% of global renewable power capacity, are on track to meet or exceed their current renewable energy goals for 2030. However, despite this growth, the world is slightly short of the goal set at the COP28 climate conference in 2023 to triple renewable capacity by the end of the decade. The IEA estimates that global renewable capacity will increase by 2.7 times its 2022 level by 2030, but meeting the full tripling target is feasible if governments act quickly. This includes outlining ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement in the next round and increasing international cooperation to lower financing costs in emerging and developing economies, especially in regions like Africa and Southeast Asia.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasized that renewables are expanding faster than governments can set targets. He noted that the rapid growth is not only driven by efforts to reduce emissions or enhance energy security but also because renewables now represent the cheapest way to add new power plants globally. He underscored that the transformation of global electricity systems through renewable energy, particularly solar, is well underway, with over 5,500 GW of new renewable capacity expected by 2030.

By 2030, renewable energy is forecast to generate almost half of global electricity, with solar and wind contributing 30% of the total. However, the report stresses that governments must take steps to integrate variable renewable sources like solar and wind into power systems more effectively. Curtailment rates, where renewable energy generation exceeds demand and is unused, have been rising in some countries, reaching about 10%. To address this, governments should prioritize enhancing grid flexibility, modernizing infrastructure, and streamlining permitting processes. The IEA also recommends that countries build and upgrade 25 million kilometers of electricity grids and reach 1,500 GW of storage capacity by 2030 to fully harness renewable generation.

In addition to electricity generation, the report highlights the growing share of renewables in overall energy consumption. By 2030, renewables are expected to account for nearly 20% of final energy consumption, up from 13% in 2023. However, renewable fuels, including sustainable biofuels, biogases, hydrogen, and e-fuels, are lagging behind in adoption. The report calls for stronger policy support to decarbonize sectors that are harder to electrify, as these fuels remain more expensive than fossil alternatives. Their share in global energy is projected to remain below 6% by 2030.

The report also examines the manufacturing landscape for renewable technologies. Global solar manufacturing capacity is projected to exceed 1,100 GW by the end of 2024, more than twice the projected demand. This oversupply, largely concentrated in China, has driven module prices down by over half since early 2023. However, many manufacturers are facing financial losses due to the glut. To promote global diversification, solar PV manufacturing is expected to triple in both India and the United States by 2030, though production costs in these countries remain significantly higher than in China. The report suggests that policymakers carefully balance the additional costs of local manufacturing with priorities such as job creation and energy security.

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