Global Peace Decline: Violence Costs 13.5% of World GDP

Peaceful societies enjoy not only higher income growth and stronger currencies but also greater political stability and increased happiness among their citizens. These societies also attract higher levels of foreign investment. The economic toll of violence on the global economy is staggering: in 2023, it amounted to $19.1 trillion in purchasing-power-parity (PPP) terms, equating to 13.5% of global GDP. This translates to a loss of $2,380 in economic output per person. This figure represents an overall increase of $158 billion from the previous year, largely due to a 20% rise in GDP losses from conflicts. Conversely, spending on peacebuilding and peacekeeping efforts was a mere $49.6 billion, which is less than 0.6% of total military expenditures.

These findings are from the 2024 Global Peace Index, compiled by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), which assesses 163 independent states and territories representing 99.7% of the world’s population. The index ranks countries based on 23 indicators grouped into three criteria: societal safety and security, ongoing domestic and international conflict, and militarization. This year, 65 countries improved their rankings, while 97 deteriorated—the highest number of deteriorations since the index’s inception in 2008.

The IEP reports that global peacefulness decreased by 0.56% this year. Although this may seem minor, it is the twelfth consecutive year of decline, amounting to an overall reduction of 4.5% since the index began. The number of refugees and internally displaced persons has surged to 95 million, with 16 countries having at least 5% of their populations in these categories.

Political instability and unresolved internal conflicts significantly undermine global peace. Afghanistan, previously the least peaceful country for six years, has been overtaken by South Sudan, Sudan, and Yemen. Ukraine, which experienced the largest decline last year, dropped two more places to 159th. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has also negatively impacted global peace. Ecuador, Gabon, and Haiti were among other nations with sharp declines.

Researchers from the IEP highlight that many factors that typically precede major conflicts are more pronounced now than at any time since World War II. There are currently 56 active conflicts, the highest number since the late 1940s, with fewer conflicts being resolved either militarily or through peace agreements.

Regionally, North America saw the largest average deterioration in peace, with a nearly 5% drop, primarily due to increased violent crime and fear of violence in both Canada and the US. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, home to four of the ten least peaceful countries, remains the least peaceful region globally. Sub-Saharan Africa, the second least peaceful region, also experienced a decline in peacefulness.

Central America and the Caribbean saw a slight average decline of 0.17%, with seven out of twelve countries recording worse scores, though El Salvador and Nicaragua showed notable improvements. South America declined by 3.6% due to worsening conditions in Safety and Security and Ongoing Conflict.

Western Europe remains the most peaceful region, with seven countries in the top ten, including the top three positions. Europe’s relative peace stems from low internal conflict, political stability, and high socio-economic development. However, the region saw its largest increase in military expenditure since the index began. Following Western Europe, Asia-Pacific is the second most peaceful region, though it, too, saw a slight deterioration.

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