Global Climate Pledges Fall Short as Most Countries Miss UN Deadline

A Carbon Brief analysis revealed that approximately 95% of countries failed to meet the United Nations (UN) deadline for submitting new climate pledges for 2035. Only 10 out of the 195 parties to the Paris Agreement had published their updated emissions-cutting plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), by the February 10 deadline.

The countries missing the deadline accounted for 83% of global emissions and nearly 80% of the world’s economy. The upcoming COP30 summit in Brazil this November was expected to be a critical moment for nations to strengthen their commitments toward achieving the Paris Agreement goals.

Adopted in 2015, the Paris Agreement set out to limit global temperature rise to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with an ambition of keeping it at 1.5°C. Under this framework, countries committed to updating their climate action plans every five years and participating in a global stocktake to assess progress and adjust strategies accordingly.

The so-called “ratchet mechanism”, designed to ensure each round of pledges was more ambitious than the last, had been a core principle of the Paris Agreement. However, analysis indicated that despite this approach, nations were still far from meeting their climate goals. The most recent UN Emissions Gap Report highlighted the urgent need for a “quantum leap in ambition” to have any chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

Despite the urgency, only 10 nations had met the deadline: the US, the UK, Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, New Zealand, Switzerland, Uruguay, Andorra, Ecuador, and Saint Lucia. Among major economies, only two members of the Group of Seven (G7) had submitted their updated climate plans. However, the US had finalized its NDC before the recent presidential inauguration, with new leadership already taking steps to withdraw the country from the Paris Agreement.

Several major emitters had attributed their delays to technical challenges, economic pressures, and political uncertainty. EU officials cited the bloc’s complex legislative approval process as the reason for missing the deadline. China had not confirmed a submission timeline, while Indian officials suggested they were in “no hurry” and might delay their pledge until the second half of the year. They also hinted that India’s NDC would reflect “disappointment” over climate finance negotiations at COP29, suggesting it was unlikely to include major new commitments.

Countries such as Canada, Japan, and Indonesia had released draft climate plans but had yet to submit final versions to the UN. Canada’s proposal had drawn criticism for being less ambitious than recommendations from its own climate advisors. Meanwhile, Russia had made no public statements about its updated pledge, with its last significant climate policy announcement occurring in 2021 when it set a net-zero emissions target for 2060.

Australia had indicated that it would postpone its NDC submission until after the country’s May elections, reportedly due to uncertainty about the impact of the US presidential election on global climate policy.

At COP29 in Azerbaijan in 2024, a coalition including Canada, Chile, the EU, Georgia, Mexico, Norway, and Switzerland had pledged to develop “1.5°C-aligned” NDCs. However, they had not provided concrete details on their plans or committed to the February deadline.

With the COP30 summit approaching, climate experts emphasized the need for countries to accelerate their climate commitments. The widespread failure to meet the UN deadline underscored the challenges of translating global climate goals into actionable national policies, leaving uncertainty about whether the world could close the emissions gap in time to meet the Paris Agreement targets.

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