CEOs on Oil Market Outlook for 2025: Balancing Demand and Supply

Global oil prices are anticipated to hover between $70 and $80 per barrel in 2025, remaining consistent with 2024 levels. However, uncertainties around supply persist due to heightened geopolitical risks, according to Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, the largest independent oil trading company worldwide. The potential rollback of OPEC+ production cuts and China’s moderate growth in oil demand have been key factors keeping oil prices within this range, despite ongoing threats of supply disruptions, particularly from the Middle East.

Hardy expressed that the oil market’s current dynamics reflect concerns about supply-demand balances in 2025. Speaking at the FT Commodities Asia Summit, he emphasized that unresolved geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding Iranian and Venezuelan exports, could complicate any predictions about oversupply in the coming year, especially with the potential policy shifts under a new U.S. administration.

China, the world’s largest oil importer, may also face constraints on its imports of discounted Iranian crude if the U.S. intensifies sanctions enforcement on Tehran. Iranian crude currently accounts for about 13% of China’s imports, a critical share that may come under pressure.

Janet Kong, CEO of Hengli Petrochemical International in Singapore, noted that the global oil market presently has about 4 million barrels per day of spare capacity, alleviating some concerns over supply shortages. She suggested that future demand growth from China and India, the second and third-largest oil consumers worldwide, will play a substantial role in shaping oil prices in 2025.

However, China’s refining industry is grappling with weaker fuel demand and export restrictions, leading to operational rates below 80%—a notably low level by industry standards. Kong indicated that refining margins in China are unlikely to rebound in the short term.

In terms of demand outlook, Hardy projected that China’s oil consumption would rise by approximately 700,000 barrels per day in 2025. He explained that while this growth may seem modest compared to recent years, it reflects a return to more stable demand patterns as China continues its post-pandemic recovery.

Have you read?
World’s Best Countries To Invest In Or Do Business.
World’s Most Startup-Friendly Countries.
World’s Best Countries For Quality of Life.
Largest Economies Europe In 2024.
GDP of the BRICS countries (2000 to 2028).