Signs of a Cooling Job Market in the US as CEOs’ Confidence Wavers

Recent economic data indicates a slowdown in the U.S. job market, and future outlooks from some of the country’s largest corporations suggest that the trend could continue, according to a new survey shared exclusively with Axios.

The latest signal comes from a Business Roundtable survey of 145 top business leaders, showing a drop in economic confidence. The organization’s CEO confidence index fell by five points in the third quarter, landing at 79, which is below the historical average for the first time this year.

One of the key factors behind the decline is the reduced number of executives planning to increase their workforce. Joshua Bolten, CEO of the Business Roundtable, noted that this is the second straight quarter in which CEOs reported pulling back on hiring plans. However, fewer than 30% of executives plan to decrease hiring, a figure that remains close to the historical average.

Bolten pointed out that the survey results align with the Federal Reserve’s outlook on a slowing economy. The data shows that 37% of CEOs expect no changes to their workforce over the next six months, while 34% anticipate increasing headcount in the same period.

This cooling sentiment mirrors broader trends in the labor market, where demand for workers has softened. Job seekers are finding it more challenging to secure employment, contributing to a rise in the unemployment rate. Despite the slowdown in hiring, layoffs remain low, signaling that most companies are holding onto their existing employees but are cautious about adding new staff.

Meanwhile, more CEOs foresee a slowdown in sales in the coming months, a factor likely influencing their more conservative hiring strategies. The sales sub-index of the survey dropped by 13 points to 110, reflecting executives’ expectations of weaker demand for their products and services as the economy cools.

Interestingly, the index tracking capital investment plans — spending on equipment, facilities, and other growth drivers — edged up by three points. According to Chuck Robbins, CEO of Cisco and chair of the Business Roundtable, a majority of CEOs plan to either maintain or increase capital expenditures, investing in tools and technologies that drive productivity and growth.

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