China’s Economic Slowdown Drives Emigration Surge – More Than 1.1 Million People Have Left China Since 2019

China’s economy is experiencing a notable slowdown, prompting the Chinese government to set an ambitious economic growth target of 5.0% for 2024. This target, deemed ambitious by many analysts, may require additional stimulus measures to achieve. Following the disappointing second-quarter figures, Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for China’s 2024 growth downwards from 5.0% to 4.9%.

The economic deceleration is having significant societal impacts in both urban and rural China, sparking fears of widespread hardship. Many citizens attribute their difficulties to the government’s stringent business policies, which are reportedly driving a substantial number of Chinese nationals to seek opportunities abroad. Countries such as Malaysia and the United States are seeing unprecedented numbers of Chinese migrants, which is transforming local communities and economies.

Since 2019, more than 1.1 million people have left China, motivated by the economic downturn and disillusionment with Xi Jinping’s increasingly coercive governance. Although China does not publish official emigration data, the United Nations reported an annual net migration of over 191,000 for the decade ending in 2019, which surged to more than 310,000 in 2022 and 2023.

In Malaysia, the number of Chinese residents has nearly doubled in recent years due to an influx of students and new investors. Ngeow Chow Bing, Director at the Institute of China Studies at the University of Malaya, estimated the Chinese population in Malaysia to be between 150,000 and 200,000, which is up from about 82,000 in 2022. Most of the newcomers are middle-class families and students attracted by Malaysia’s centuries-old Chinese diaspora, which comprises about 23% of its 34 million citizens. The country’s higher education institutions enrolled 44,043 Chinese students last year, a 35% increase from 2021.

Chinese investors are also making their mark in Malaysia, particularly in the electronics and electric vehicle sectors, where they aim to increase capacity outside China to evade US tariffs. There are about 45,000 Chinese owners, managers, and workers in these industries in Malaysia, up from an estimated 10,000 in 2021.

Meanwhile, the United States has seen a historic wave of illegal border crossings by Chinese immigrants. Over the past 18 months, US authorities have encountered more than 55,000 Chinese migrants crossing illegally from Mexico, a dramatic rise from 3,813 in 2022. These migrants, fleeing economic stagnation and political repression, face perilous journeys across multiple countries, often falling prey to exploitation by smuggling networks.

This emigration trend is not confined to Malaysia and the US. Countries like Vietnam, Japan, and Thailand are also experiencing an influx of Chinese migrants. In Vietnam, Chinese business owners are establishing operations to support American tech giants in diversifying their supply chains. Japan has relaxed immigration restrictions to attract entrepreneurs and investors, leading to a noticeable increase in Chinese residents. Thailand, with its long-term residency visa introduced in 2022, now houses about 130,000 Chinese migrants.

Wealthy Chinese nationals are opting for destinations such as Singapore and Malta, where they can acquire citizenship through investment. They are also the largest group of golden visa applicants in Portugal and Greece. Conversely, middle-class Chinese nationals are taking arduous and illegal routes, often through Latin America, to present themselves at US-Mexico border security points, where they claim persecution by Chinese authorities to secure asylum.

This migration surge is bringing both challenges and opportunities to host countries. In Malaysia, the influx of Chinese residents is expected to have a significant impact due to the country’s smaller population and sensitive ethnic divisions. The growing number of Chinese residents could exacerbate social tensions, as Malaysia’s Chinese diaspora has not fully assimilated, and the Muslim Malay majority is resistant to increasing Chinese influence.

In the US, illegal Chinese migrants primarily settle in areas with large Chinese-speaking communities, such as Flushing in Queens, New York. This neighborhood has become a top destination for recent Chinese migrants, drawn by job opportunities, housing availability, and assistance with asylum claims.

Despite the challenges, Chinese migrants are contributing economically to their host countries. In Malaysia, Chinese investors and entrepreneurs are actively involved in various industries, from electronics to agriculture. The China Entrepreneurs Association in Malaysia noted a steady influx of new arrivals, especially those looking to expand their businesses outside China.

However, the presence of Chinese migrants has sparked social tensions in some areas. In Thailand, there are widespread complaints on social media about Chinese newcomers disregarding local norms and flouting visa rules. Critics argue that Chinese-owned businesses do not significantly benefit the domestic economy as they rely heavily on labor, raw materials, and merchandise from China.

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