Rapid Expansion of Pacific Australia Labour Mobility Scheme Benefits Pacific Nations

Over the past five years, the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme has seen significant changes. In June 2019, Australia hosted 5,886 PALM visa holders, a number that skyrocketed to 32,513 by May 2024—a remarkable increase of 450%.

Several factors contributed to this surge, notably the prioritization of PALM workers during the COVID-19 pandemic and the scheme’s expansion from seasonal to multi-year work opportunities. However, what implications does this rapid growth hold for the ten countries supplying workers to the PALM scheme? Analysis of visa data from the Department of Home Affairs sheds light on this question.

The data reveals that all participating countries have benefited. The accompanying graph illustrates the numbers and rankings for each country at the start and end of the period, as well as their growth rates. The minimum growth rate was 181% for Vanuatu, nearly tripling its worker numbers.

Since 2017, Vanuatu has been the leading source of PALM workers, surpassing Tonga. However, in May 2024, Fiji overtook Vanuatu. Comparing the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea (PNG) provides further insight. Both countries began with fewer than 200 workers in 2019 and have since increased their numbers substantially. The Solomon Islands has outpaced PNG, now sending 3,000 more workers. PNG’s recruitment, driven by its Members of Parliament, contrasts with the Solomon Islands’ more systematic approach, which includes an Australian-based liaison officer to support employers. Despite PNG’s efforts and World Bank assistance, it sends only a few hundred more workers than Kiribati, a much smaller and more distant country.

Overall, countries with initially lower shares have experienced the fastest growth. Tonga and Vanuatu, the largest sources in June 2019, have grown the slowest. Countries with middling growth include Samoa, Timor-Leste, and Kiribati. The smallest contributors in 2019, such as PNG, Solomon Islands, Fiji, and Tuvalu, have seen the highest growth rates. Nauru’s growth rate remains undefined as it had no workers at the start of the period.

The rapid growth among smaller senders has led to a significant decrease in market concentration. In June 2019, the three largest source countries—Vanuatu, Tonga, and Timor-Leste—held a 78% market share. As of now, the top three—Fiji, Vanuatu, and Solomon Islands—hold only 54%.

This reduced concentration is advantageous, allowing more countries to participate meaningfully and giving employers greater choice. If numbers from certain countries decline (for instance, Vanuatu and Samoa have collectively lost around 3,000 workers since early 2023), other countries are prepared to fill the gap.

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