ETC Calls for Higher Ambition in Next Round of National Climate Plans

In its recent briefing, “Credible Contributions: Bolder Plans for Higher Climate Ambition in the Next Round of NDCs,” the Energy Transitions Commission (ETC) emphasizes the need for increased collaboration between industry and government to enhance the ambition of the upcoming Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by COP30. The report advocates that NDCs should reflect technical potential and bolster existing progress by setting more ambitious targets aligned with national policies. This approach aims to create a clear path forward, reduce uncertainty, and expedite the deployment of clean energy technologies.

Countries are required to submit and progressively enhance their national climate pledges every five years. The next round of NDCs is due next year, establishing emissions reduction targets over 10-year periods. To date, the low-carbon transition has been largely driven by industry responses to government targets, which have accelerated deployment and reduced costs. The industry now calls on governments to deliver high-ambition NDCs to provide certainty, unlock investment, and hasten technology deployment.

Third Round of NDCs Due in 2025

Global greenhouse gas emissions have reached an unprecedented level of approximately 59 GtCO2e and are still climbing. Current NDC targets, set in 2020, are projected to achieve only about 6 GtCO2e of emissions savings per year by 2035, far short of the 23-30 GtCO2e reduction needed for a 1.5°C-aligned pathway. The ETC suggests that if governments incorporate existing policy commitments from COP28 and recent technological advancements into the next round of NDCs, the overall ambition could nearly triple, achieving approximately 18 GtCO2e of mitigation annually by 2035, potentially limiting global warming to 2°C.

Significant progress is evident, with many core energy transition technologies reaching self-sustaining growth points and robust national policies accelerating manufacturing and deployment globally. For instance, new wind and solar installations now fulfill over 90% of global power demand growth, and electric vehicles constitute 18% of global passenger vehicle sales, reaching 20% and 40% in Europe and China, respectively. Technologies and policies aimed at decarbonizing heavy industry and long-distance transport are also nearing commercial readiness.

Increased Commitments at COP28

At COP28, nearly 200 countries committed to tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, and transitioning away from fossil fuels in the energy sector. Adair Turner, who is the Chair of the Energy Transitions Commission, emphasized that the industry has significantly scaled up the manufacturing and deployment of clean energy technologies under current policy support. Enhanced ambition in the next round of NDCs at COP30 could reinforce and accelerate this progress. Effective collaboration between industry and government to develop measurable, actionable, and investable plans is essential for driving meaningful action.

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