AI’s Impact and Optimism for 2025 Dominate Dutch CEO Perspectives

Nearly one in five senior executives at large Dutch companies believes that artificial intelligence (AI) will almost certainly replace jobs in the future, according to ING’s annual CEO survey. This represents a substantial rise from last year when only 6% of executives shared that view. Conducted in November 2024 by research firm MetrixLab on behalf of ING, the survey gathered insights from 263 top executives, including CEOs, CFOs, and CTOs, from companies with annual revenues exceeding $262 million (250 million euros). Among these, 34% were listed on the stock market.

The survey revealed that 54% of executives said AI “maybe” would replace jobs, an increase from 39% in 2023. Job roles in research and development, customer service, and IT departments are expected to face the most significant impacts. Despite these concerns, AI has become the top innovation priority for Dutch CEOs, moving up from third place last year.

Mark Milders, ING Netherlands’ director of Wholesale Banking, attributed the heightened interest in AI to its dual role as both a disruptive force and a driver of innovation. He noted that the growing apprehension about AI reflects its transformative nature while emphasizing its potential to accelerate progress.

The survey also highlighted rising optimism among executives about their companies’ prospects for 2025. Ninety percent of respondents expressed confidence in their outlook, up from 85% last year. This optimism extends to government policies, with 76% believing that Dutch government actions will positively impact their businesses and 78% expecting improvements to the broader business climate.

Expectations surrounding the potential re-election of former U.S. President Donald Trump also played a role in shaping executives’ sentiment. ING’s findings showed that 78% of respondents viewed Trump’s presidency as favorable to their businesses, while 74% anticipated broader benefits for the Netherlands. Executives cited economic stability and clearer international regulations as potential advantages of Trump’s policies. However, they also voiced concerns about potential trade wars, inflation, higher interest rates, and a stronger U.S. dollar.

Sustainability remains a pressing priority, with 83% of executives planning to intensify efforts in this area. Developing sustainable products and services emerged as the primary approach to achieving these goals. However, more than half of respondents acknowledged difficulties in creating actionable plans for sustainable transitions, which they noted also posed challenges in securing financing.

Milders explained that companies facing hurdles in sustainability risk higher financing costs as banks adopt stricter environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria. Nearly half of the respondents expect climate-related risks to make financing more expensive, while 29% reported that these risks are already affecting their costs.

Financial market developments, monetary policy, and regulatory changes have replaced geopolitical tensions as top concerns for Dutch executives this year. For those still worried about geopolitics, issues such as rising energy prices, inflation, and interest rates remain significant risks.

When asked about priorities for the Dutch government, executives identified improving the business environment (15%), maintaining competitiveness (11%), and enhancing employee infrastructure (11%) as the most pressing concerns. Meanwhile, issues like the energy transition (10%), migration, climate change, and housing shortages ranked lower on the priority list.

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