Global trade is projected to reach an unprecedented $33 trillion in 2024, according to the latest Global Trade Update released by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on 5 December. This marks a $1 trillion increase from the previous year, representing 3.3% annual growth—a testament to the resilience of global trade despite ongoing challenges.
The expansion was driven largely by a 7% annual rise in services trade, which accounted for half of the growth. Meanwhile, goods trade increased by 2%, although it remained below its 2022 peak.
Developing economies, typically the engines of global trade, experienced setbacks in 2024, with imports shrinking by 1% and South-South trade declining by the same percentage during the third quarter. In contrast, developed economies fueled growth in Q3, with a 3% increase in imports and a 2% rise in exports, spurred by stable consumer demand.
Despite these challenges, opportunities persist for developing nations to leverage high-growth industries. Sectors such as information and communication technology (ICT) and apparel trade saw significant increases of 13% and 14%, respectively, in Q3 2024. These gains highlight the potential for diversification and greater participation in value-added industries.
Easing inflation and stable global growth projections for 2025 offer further prospects for strengthening economic resilience. However, traditional sectors vital to many developing economies faced declines. Energy trade dropped 2% in Q3 and 7% for the year, while metals trade fell 3% on both quarterly and annual bases. Automotive trade declined by 3% during Q3 but is forecasted to achieve a modest 4% growth by year-end.
UNCTAD emphasized the importance of strategic policy measures for developing economies, encouraging diversification into high-value sectors and investment in resilience-building initiatives. Rebeca Grynspan, Secretary-General of UNCTAD, stressed that trade remains essential for sustainable development. She underscored the need for coordinated global support to help developing nations reduce dependencies, navigate uncertainties, and strengthen their integration into global markets.
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