G20 Declaration Supports Climate Goals But Sidesteps Fossil Fuel Commitments

On Tuesday, the G20’s final declaration expressed support for the ambitious outcomes of the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai (COP28), emphasizing what was termed the “UAE Consensus.” However, the document did not explicitly mention the commitment made at last year’s UN climate summit to “transition away” from fossil fuels.

G20 countries reaffirmed their dedication to multilateralism, particularly highlighting the progress under the Paris Agreement. This comes amid a renewed pledge from the U.S. President-elect to withdraw from the agreement once again.

G20 nations, responsible for roughly 85% of global economic activity and more than 75% of greenhouse gas emissions, are largely accountable for driving global warming. The primary sources of these emissions include coal, natural gas, and oil, which are extensively used for electricity and heating, trapping heat in the atmosphere and raising global temperatures.

In 2022, G20 governments collectively spent $1.1 trillion on fossil fuel subsidies, the highest in at least a decade. These subsidies were largely aimed at shielding consumers from the energy price spikes caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Projections for 2023 estimate that G20 support for coal, gas, oil, and other fossil fuels will reach $945 billion, reflecting a 19% decrease from the previous year but still significantly above historical levels

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has urged nations to stop initiating new gas and oil projects, arguing that this step is essential to meet the 1.5°C target associated with net-zero emissions.

During a meeting in Rio on Tuesday, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres praised new emissions reduction targets announced in Baku by Brazil and the UK—two G20 nations—as a positive start. However, he stressed that further action is necessary. Guterres emphasized that all countries must align their climate strategies with the 1.5°C limit, setting clear targets for 2030 and 2035 that cover every sector and all greenhouse gases. He highlighted the need to meet COP28 commitments, which include tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency, and stopping deforestation—all by 2030. He also urged countries to ensure that fossil fuel production and consumption align with the 1.5°C threshold.

This 1.5°C limit, established at the 2015 COP21 climate summit, forms a core part of the Paris Agreement, signed by 196 parties. The agreement aims to limit global warming to below 1.5°C or “well below 2°C” above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Exceeding these limits risks breaching critical tipping points, which could lead to severe and irreversible damage to vital ecosystems.

In their declaration, G20 leaders supported the implementation of targets to triple renewables and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030. Despite this, the lack of direct mention of fossil fuels caused frustration among many leading negotiators at COP29. The summit, currently taking place in Azerbaijan—a country with significant oil interests—is scheduled to conclude on Friday. A negotiator from the G7 expressed concerns that the absence of a strong G20 stance on fossil fuels would make this week’s negotiations even more challenging.

Nonetheless, the G20 sent a positive signal regarding climate finance, a major focus of the ongoing COP29 talks. The declaration expressed anticipation for a successful outcome on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) in Baku, emphasizing the need for “trillions” of dollars in climate financing. The latest Stern-Songwe report estimates that by 2035, developing nations (excluding China) will require $1.3 trillion annually in climate finance. A significant portion of this funding is expected to come from the private sector, potentially through high-quality carbon credits.

G20 leaders also pledged to support the COP29 Presidency and expressed their commitment to a successful conclusion of negotiations in Baku. UN climate chief Simon Stiell interpreted this commitment as a strong directive to negotiators not to leave Baku without establishing a new finance goal. Stiell had recently warned that failure to provide adequate financing for vulnerable nations would lead to “economic carnage.”

In a related development, the Brazilian government, in collaboration with UNESCO and the UN, announced a new initiative aimed at combating climate misinformation. The Global Initiative for Information Integrity on Climate Change seeks to bolster research and efforts to counter false information that obstructs climate progress. Brazilian President Lula stated that this initiative is being developed in preparation for COP30, which will be hosted in Brazil.

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