AMRO Forecasts Steady Growth for ASEAN+3 Region

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has maintained its growth projections for the ASEAN+3 region at 4.4 percent for 2024 and 4.3 percent for 2025, as revealed in the latest ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) update. This optimistic outlook is supported by favorable export conditions, robust domestic demand, and a strong rebound in tourism.

AMRO, an international organization, works to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability in the ASEAN+3 region, which includes the ten ASEAN nations and China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea.

In 2024, the ASEAN+3 region is anticipated to grow steadily at 4.4 percent, a slight adjustment from the 4.5 percent forecast in April 2024. This growth is expected to be driven by stable employment, moderate inflation, and an upturn in global demand, bolstering exports. ASEAN’s growth is projected to rise from 4.2 percent in 2023 to 4.8 percent in 2024, while the Plus-3 economies (China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea) are forecasted to maintain a stable growth rate of 4.4 percent.

For 2025, AMRO predicts a slight easing in the region’s growth to 4.3 percent, aligning with the long-term trend growth of regional economies.

The region’s overall economic risk balance has improved since April. China’s economy remains strong, except for the real estate sector, and tourism has almost returned to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, the global semiconductor market recovery is expanding, benefiting more sectors and economies within ASEAN+3.

Inflation in the ASEAN+3 region, excluding Lao PDR and Myanmar, is expected to decrease to 2.1 percent in 2024, down from the April forecast of 2.5 percent. However, potential geopolitical tensions pose risks that could lead to spikes in global commodity and shipping prices, impacting inflation.

Risks related to the United States have become more pronounced. Higher U.S. interest rates are affecting the region’s currencies, and asset markets could experience increased volatility leading up to the U.S. presidential election in November, especially if there is an escalation in U.S.–China trade tensions.

The latest AREO report by AMRO suggests that while the U.S. elections could significantly impact the region’s outlook, ASEAN+3 economies have historically managed similar shocks well. The focus remains on enhancing policy space and resilience to future shocks.

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