Behavioural Science for Black Friday 2025: Insights for Retailers and Consumers

Understanding shopper psychology, digital behaviours, and ethical strategies is critical this Black Friday. Retailers can design campaigns that convert responsibly, while consumers navigate the flood of promotions with confidence and clarity.

Black Friday has evolved significantly since its legacy as the first Friday after Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in 1924. Earlier attempts to rebrand it as Big Friday are more accurate today, reflecting its global reach and growing adoption.

The Retail Association of Australia predicted the trend would continue even amid rising costs of living. The record $6.7 billion expected spend during Black Friday to Cyber Monday represented a 5.5% increase over 2023. By mid-2025, forecasts now push that figure over $7 billion, driven by faster digital adoption and higher consumer participation. Retailers need to anticipate this surge and balance promotion strategies with operational capacity.

Ecommerce has grown dramatically since the early days of Amazon (1997) and Paypal (1998). Spending five years at Groupon provided first-hand insight into how digital behaviours have shifted, and the operational and ethical challenges retailers face.

Digital natives are now a dominant force in retail consumer behaviour. Westpac projects Millennials will spend $675 AUD on average over Black Friday – Cyber Monday promotions, compared with $430 AUD for Boomers. Retailers can leverage this insight to tailor messaging, suggestions, campaigns and channel strategies.

Black Friday creep is also now a thing, with promotions launching earlier each year. While early campaigns can capture attention, they also risk fatigue. Retailers must time campaigns strategically, mindful of proximity to Christmas and cultural buying patterns like the Philippines’ September Christmas craze, in an endeavour to win those early eyeballs.

Data-driven retail has also become a science in itself. Mastery of one-click buying, A/B testing, language, best visuals or user experience to optimise conversion have all become practices retailers continually seek to master. The documentary ‘Buy Now’ also highlights these profit-driving strategies must be done while considering product longevity and even post-sale impact to environment.

Operational caution remains critical. The ACCC filed proceedings against Woolworths and Coles in 2024, over allegedly misleading discount practices, that are still progressing through the courts in 2025. These cases demonstrate pricing gamification and the importance of compliance. Temporary price inflations before a ‘discount’ may mislead consumers and ultimately undermine trust if not managed transparently.

During my years in ecommerce at Groupon, navigating such promotional strategies required careful oversight from both sales and operations to prevent driving misleading campaigns. Retailers would be well served monitoring historical pricing, maintaining transparency and aligning promotions with ethical standards.

The ACCC’s 2024 guidance in relation to bad actors remain highly relevant. Over 4,500 scams, counterfeit items, and fake stores were reported in 2024/2025 (up from 3,000 in 2023/24), costing consumers significant sums. Retailers should clearly communicate authenticity, highlight secure channels and invest in educating and protecting shoppers.

The continued rapid evolution of AI introduces amplified opportunity along with a whole new set of challenges. Deepfake chatbots or AI agents impersonating legitimate retailers are increasingly sophisticated. Retailers must deploy verification, human oversight, and proactive communication to mitigate their own risks in addition to their customers.

Consumer behaviour during Black Friday is also shaped by additional behavioural factors. FOMO, the fear of missing out, has become a defining driver of consumer behaviour in the digital age and rise of social media.

While some fears are innate, ranging from basic survival instincts like the fear of falling or loud sounds, to more existential fears such as loss of autonomy, separation, or even death, the fear of missing out, not necessarily a strictly scientific fear, is more a  learned response.

With the average consumer spending approximately 143 minutes a day, immersed on social media, in highly curated glimpses of others’ lives and purchases, the influence of FOMO on buying decisions, especially during events like Black Friday, can be significant.

Equally important is herd mentality. Consumers are often drawn to the carnival of collective activity, with a small subset, often perceived as more informed or expert, subtly influencing many others. Professor of neuroscience Michael Platt notes in a Big Think feature that ‘this tendency to follow the herd emerges from our social brain networks.’

For retailers, this manifests in everything from trending product categories to flash promotions. Understanding which signals trigger herd behaviour, doing so ethically, helps retailers design and unlock campaigns that both engage and convert buyers.

Retailers can harness these behavioural insights responsibly through social proof, urgency, and peer-influenced strategies, but must avoid manipulative tactics that erode trust and put them in the line of fire from industry and consumer protection agencies.

Behavioural insights like these are highly actionable. Consumers make fast, emotional decisions, aligned with Nobel Memorial Prize Recipient, Daniel Kahneman’s system 1, and slower, deliberate choices, system 2,

Retailers can design campaigns appealing to both fast and slow decision-making strategies of shoppers: clear visuals, urgency cues, and social proof for quick decisions, plus detailed product info and trustworthy content for the more deliberative buyers.

University of Melbourne research shows that first impressions form in seven seconds. Every touchpoint, online, in-app or in-store, matters. Retailers must optimise user experience, product presentation and trust signals for instant credibility.

Finally, Elisabeth Kübler-Ross reminds us: “There are only two emotions: love and fear. All positive emotions from love, all negative emotions from fear.” Retailers will ideally aim to design experiences that foster positive engagement and reduce fear-driven behaviours that may ultimately lead to distrust, increased returns or complaints.

Black Friday 2025 continues to offer enormous opportunity, but also risk. Ethical, data-driven campaigns informed by behavioural insights, pricing transparency, and AI vigilance are essential to convert sales responsibly, protect brand reputation, and maintain consumer trust.