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Detail analysis of the changing US F-35 procurement

By Guest contributors for CEOWORLD Magazine Updated:October 21, 2009

Quantities F-35s of the US Air Force

Current jet fighter fleet (August 2009)

A-10 Warthog

Total of 356 A-10A/A-10C/OA-10
The A-10 is undergoing an upgrade/life extension program from 2007-2011 to extend service
life until 2028 Some additional 188 A-10s are in storage.

F-15 Eagle

Total of 663 Boeing F-15 Eagles:
46x Boeing F-15A (152 stored)
9x Boeing F-15B (18 stored)
334x Boeing F-15C (1 stored);
52x Boeing F-15D
178 F-15C/D Golden Eagles to survive until 2025 after Service Life Extension
Program to extend their service lifer from 8.000 to 10.000 hours; starting in 2009
222x Boeing F-15E
Deliveries from 1989, but subject to continuous upgrades to ensure service until 2035

F-16 Falcon

Total of 1215 Lockheed Martin F16s:
0x Lockheed Martin F-16A no longer current
2x Lockheed Martin F-16B (and 49 stored)
1041x Lockheed Martin F-16C (and 22 stored)
172x Lockheed Martin F-16D
The average age of the USAF F-16s is about 20 years. As part of its proposed combat
restructuring plan, the Air Force plans to retire 123 aging F-16s.

F-22 Raptor

124x Lockheed Martin F-22A Raptor (4 withdrawn; 2 lost) deliveries from 2003)
57x Lockheed Martin F-22A Raptor ordered

Quantities F-35s of the US Marine Corps

The USMC currently has 12 active VMFA/VMFA(AW) squadrons and one reserve VMFA squadron with F/A-18 Hornets. This is a reduction in force structure created as a result of two active and two reserve squadrons being placed into cadre status. This reduction was caused by a shortage (2008) in strike fighter inventory of some 50 strike fighters. It should be recuperated with the F-35, however this may be higly uncertain.

The average age of F/A-18A-B Hornets is 23 years. The average age of F/A-18C-D Hornets is 15 years. There are 7 active VMA squadrons with AV-8 Harriers. And a training unit with AV-8 and TAV-8 Harriers. The average age of AV-8 Harriers is 12 years; the average age of TAV-8 Harriers is 19 years.

Current jet fighter fleet (August 2009)

110x McDonnel-Douglas AV-8B Harrier (and 19 in depot)
16x McDonnel-Douglas TAV-8B Harrier
36x Boeing F/A-18A Hornet (and 15+ in depot)
2x Boeing F/A-18B Hornet (and 10+ in depot)
78x Boeing F/A-18C Hornet (and 15+ in depot)
76x Boeing F/A-18D Hornet (and 15+ in depot)

Total jet fighters (active): 308

Opportunities Joint Strike Fighter

The “Force Goal” was defined in the FY2009 USMC planning (October 2008) was a total of
348 Lockheed Martin F-35B Lightning IIs (STOVL version) consisting of:
140 in 14 VMFA squadrons with 10 F-35Bs
112 in 7 VMFA squadrons with 16 F-35Bs
30 in 3 (RC) VMFA squadrons with 10 F-35Bs
60 in 3 FRS squadrons with 20 F-35Bs
6 in 1 testunit with 6 F-35Bs

The May 1997 QDR planned a procurement of 609 JSFs for the US Marine Corps. In March 2002 the Pentagon was reviewing a proposal to cut JSF production by by 409 aircraft, 259 jets from the US Marine Corps buy, and 150 from the Navy purchase, and limit the US Marine Corps buy to some 350 F-35B’s.

Since the start of the Joint Strike Fighter program in 2001 a continuous move in numbers to future years can be seen. In 2001 a number of 96 F-35Bs was planned to procure from FY2005 until FY2009, this has been changed into only 13 F-35Bs. Also a total number of 222 F-35Bs was planned from FY2005 until FY2013, this has been changed into only 90 F-35Bs.

This is a confirmation of the fighter gap, as calculated by several USMC staffers. During a hearing on Air Force and Navy aviation programs of the Senate Armed Service Committee on April 9, 2008, Rear Admiral Allen Myers projected a “most-optimistic” deficit of 56 strike fighters for Marine Corps. The projected gap will peak around 2017, but is an optimistic estimate, because it assumed that the service life of F/A-18 Hornets could be extended from 8,000 flight hours to 10,000 (original service life was 6,000 flight hours).

In a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report in April 2009 a more realistic (larger) gap was used, based on a briefing to House Armed Services Committee staffers in which the Navy projected that the strike fighter shortfall could grow to 114 Marine Corps fighters.

Quantities F-35s of the US Navy

Mainstay of the US Navy at this moment is the Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet. The Super Hornet first flew in 1995. Full-rate production began in September 1997. The U.S. Navy currently flies both the F/A-18E single-seater and F/A-18F two-seater in combat roles, replacing the retired F-14 Tomcat, A-6 Intruder, S-3 Viking, and KA-6D. An electronic warfare variant, the EA-18G Growler, will replace the aging EA-6B Prowler.

The May 1997 QDR reduced procurement to 480 for the Navy and noted that up to 230 of the Navy’s 480 JSFs could be replaced by F/A-18E/Fs, depending on the progress of the JSF program and the price of its Navy variant compared to the F/A-18E/F. Under the QDR 1997 a total of 548 Super Hornets could be procured.

In April 2002 the Pentagon was reviewing a proposal to cut JSF production by 409 aircraft, 259 jets from the US Marine Corps buy, and 150 from the Navy purchase to a total of 330 F-35Cs; and limit the US Navy’s F/A-18E/F acquisition to 460 aircraft versus 548 planned in the QDR 1997. The Department of the Navy was concerned that it could not afford the number of tactical aircraft it planned to purchase and reduced the number of backup aircraft
needed The F/A-18 Hornets are being flown at higher rates than originally planned.

At this moment half of all tactical flights into Afghanistan are conducted by carrier based US Navy Hornets and Super Hornets, wearing out these planes much faster than expected. This contributes to the predicted tactical fighter gap in 2017 and is feeding pressure to buy more Super Hornets. Several times in 2007, 2008 and 2009 it was reported that the US Navy was considering buying additional F/A-18 Super Hornets to close the “fighter gap”.

In April 2009 House Armed Services Committee has requested the Pentagon to study a new multi-year contract. In FY2010 the US Navy intents to buy a further 31 F/A-18s. It is unlikely that the Obama administration will take a positive decision on a multiyear agreement for more F/A-18 purchases until after completion of the new Quadrennial Defense Review and prior to the FY2011 budget.

Current jet fighter fleet (August 2009)

F/A-18A-D Hornet
Total 409x Boeing F/A-18 Hornets (and 30 stored):
59x Boeing F/A-18A Hornet (and 30+ in depot)
16x Boeing F/A-18B Hornet
287x Boeing F/A-18C Hornet
47x Boeing F/A-18D Hornet

F/A-18E-F Super Hornet/EA-18 Growler

Based on the currently known numbers the total production of US Navy F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and EA-18 Growlers will end in FY2011 with a total number of 546 aircraft. Since the start of the operations 13 aircraft are crashed of withdrawn, making a remaining number of 533 aircraft.

176x Boeing F/A-18E (19 more to be delivered, total 195 planned)
216x Boeing F/A-18F (25 more to be delivered, 9 requested FY2010, total 250 planned)
10x Boeing EA-18G (46 more to be delivered, 32 requested FY10/FY11, total 88 planned)

During a hearing on Air Force and Navy aviation programs of the Senate Armed Service Committee on April 9, 2008, Rear Admiral Allen Myers projected a “most-optimistic” deficit of 69 strike fighters for the US Navy. The projected gap will peak around 2017, but is an optimistic estimate, because it assumed that the service life of F/A-18 Hornets could be extended from 8,000 flight hours to 10,000 (original service life was 6,000 flight hours).

Opportunities Joint Strike Fighter

A total of 680 F-35Bs and F35Cs was defined in the MOU-PSFD of April 2007 for the US Department of Navy and, officially didn’t change since 2007. The “Force Goal” of the US Marine Corps was defined in the FY2009 USMC planning (October 2008) at a total of 348 Lockheed Martin F-35Bs, so the official number of US Navy F-35C Lightning IIs (CV version) would be 332 aircraft.

In April 2002 the Pentagon was reviewing a proposal to cut JSF production to a total US Navy purchase of 330 F-35Cs and limit the US Navy’s F/A-18E/F acquisition to 460 aircraft, making a total of 790 future US Navy Jet Fighters. With the delayed Initial Operational Capability date of 2015 and the growing US Navy “fighter gap” some 90 more F/A-18 Super Hornets were procured than originally planned: 546 in stead of 460. The budget of the US Navy to buy the original planned number of 330 F-35C’s has become under pressure by these additional Super Hornet buys.

Since the start of the Joint Strike Fighter program in 2001 a continuous move in numbers to future years can be seen. In 2001 a number of 61 F-35Cs was planned to procure from FY2005 until FY2009, this has been changed into zero F-35Cs. Also a total number of 199 F-35Cs was planned from FY2005 until FY2013, this has been changed into only 42 F-35Cs.

By Johan Boeder (The Netherlands) started publishing about aviation in 1977 as a freelance author and publicist working for several newspapers. Since 2007 he advices Members of Parliament in several European countries as an independent expert on the F-35 fighter program and business case.